Ukraine Continues the Crisis

Subscriber only piece from Jane's Foreign Report titles Ukraine's President Pushes the Panic Button does a good job of providing background in a nutshell.

Their forecast?

The main winner from the crisis is Tymoshenko. In early elections, her bloc
would be likely to come a close second to the Party of Regions and, in an
ensuing Orange Coalition, she would become prime minister.

However, Yanukovych could still turn the tables on his Orange Coalition
rivals and consolidate his position as the key political power in Ukraine.

Should the crisis continue unabated, the potential for violence would also
grow and with this would come the risk of wider societal division and
widespread domestic instability.

During my time in Ukraine I was constantly frustrated by the apathy the west showed toward the region. It is a critically important area that will unfortunately be recognized only when things go terribly wrong.

For anybody that has lost faith in the US political system, just be aware that it is a paragon of virtue in every way when compared to Ukraine.

Where is Ukraine?

And how did it get here? Here is a decent analysis of the current situation in Ukraine, tracing back through the squandered opportunities to move the country into a positive direction. The only complaint I have it the title of the piece "Did West Pull Up Stakes Too Soon?" The title implies that the west is responsible but that really doesn't reflect the conclusion reached.

Yushenko ultimately bears the blame for the fiasco since he clearly failed to exploit the massive outpouring of support, failed to use his political capital to push through needed legislation, failed to effectively build working coalitions and failed to maintain the appearance of a level of incorruptability that a person in his position has to have. He failed so completely that the comically corrupt Prime Minister Yanakovich has a piece in the Financial Times about the importance of the Rule of Law!

I don't see how Yanukovich, attempted thief of the 2004 election, was able to pound out the words without destroying his keyboard from convulsions of laughter. Actually, from every impression I've ever gotten of Yanukovich, I don't understand how he was able to actually find the keyboard or the power switch to the computer. Maybe he consulted with his coalition. That's what coalitions are for!

And of course, Yanukovich is demanding the President abide by the law in order that Yanukovich can continue his process of literally buying members of the Rada to create a super majority coalition.

If I sound cynical, see if you can read this passage about protesters in Kiev without a twinge of it yourself:

They pay 40 hryvna a day and 100 hryvna a night, - confesses an elder man
from Zhytomyr camping in the Mariinsky Park next to the Parliament. - I can
make my monthly salary here within a week".

But a group of young people who observe the political show in the Maydan are
divided in their opinion. "I wouldn't have ever accepted any money from
these guys", - says Yurko, a student of Mohyla Academy. But his friend
Alexander, who lives in a student dormitory, says: "Why not? They return
back to the people the money they stole from them.

Their recruiters offer 40 hryvna for just two hours to stay here with
blue-and-white flag. I don't support Yanukovych but my stipend is 350 hryvna
and I get no extra allowance from my parents. I feel it would be actually
better if we take these money ourselves and pay them lip-service. Otherwise,
they would bring their real supporters from Donbas who may make a lot of
harm here".

Unfortunately, this comes from an op-ed by Mykola Rjabtschuk in a German publication (Berliner Zeitung, No.86) that I don't have a link to. The English translation is available at the Action Ukraine Report, a nationalist oriented newsletter maintained by the ex-pat (or diaspora) community in the US. The opinion piece is very slanted in favor of Yushenko but I have known people that took payment for protesting. It is commonly known. If you are interested in receiving the newsletters, you can sign up at the link above.

I've always enjoyed the Action Ukraine Report and actually had the opportunity to meet Morgan Williams, the publisher, who is a very nice man. I don't share his partisanship but I think his heart is in the right place. It just takes a careful reader to understand what is news and what is political opinion.

Finally, no day is complete without visiting the always interesting Neeka's Backlog where Veronica mentions yet more talk of a potential split of Ukraine. I've always thought that kind of talk was silly and hope it still is...silly rather than frightening. Veronica seems to travel a lot and I think she is currently in Russia but she brings a passion and real anger to her posts that captures the heart of somebody who truly cares.

Coalition of the Bored

Via Neeka's Backlog , an example of the intense commitment to political change. Probably the best use of a Party of Regions flag in years.

Meanwhile the Party of Regions has canceled a rally scheduled for today because of bad weather.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear that the lack of enthusiasm is limited to the Yanakovich team.

Money is NOT the Answer

I just ran across this piece by Nikolas K Gvosdev that is an interesting take on the current Ukraine situation. I know nothing about Mr. Gvosdev except that his name implies he is from that part of the world, and I know nothing about National Interest, the publication his commentary is in.

One part that I definitely take issue with is his assertion that the West must pump even greater amounts of financial aid into the country. Ukraine has recieved huge amounts of aid. Vast amounts of that aid have been embezzled. The best thing they west could do is come up with some system that demands accountability and protects the monies being provided from ending up in somebody's living room, or redecorating the living room, or building the house with the living room.

Ukraine in Turmoil

I should have posted something about the latest debacle in Ukraine but frankly I was temporarily overcome with a bit of weariness over the whole situation. Having lived there during the revolution and believed in the great future that Ukraine has in its hands, I'd grown tired of the continual political gamesmanship that all sides have played to the detriment of the country.

It is about around now that I need to start chanting some positive affirmations to myself and regain my optimism.

Anyway, Yushenko has dissolved Parliment and the people have yet again taken to the streets. They say Maidan is full but the Maidan Cam I use doesn't seem to show that.

During the revolution, this was a great source because the TV was defacto government controlled and you couldn't get true coverage there. I kept up with everything through blogs of people living in Ukraine and with some connections with government officials. Unfortunately one of the best Orange Ukraine seems to have all but stopped any postings but another of my favorites Neeka's Backlog, is back in Kiev and posting up a storm with video and pictures. She definitely has an "on the ground" view.

I am calling friends to learn more but so far no luck.

UPDATE: A friend in Nikolaev says there are no signs about what is going on although they have been advised to not travel to Kiev. She is going to ask around but has to be careful not to bring up politics with the locals.